Anton Bendarzewski, Director of the Oeconomus Foundation for Economic Research, discussed a number of issues related to Hungarian-Ukrainian relations, the impact of American policy on the situation in Ukraine and the possibility of a meeting between Viktor Orbán and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
This is stated in an exclusive interview for kiszo.news.
How do you assess the development of Hungarian-Ukrainian bilateral relations, can they move in the direction of improvement or further deterioration in the future?
"I believe that we have already passed the lowest point of Hungarian-Ukrainian relations, I would call it 2022-2023, when there were tougher statements from both sides addressed to each other. It is important to emphasize that Hungary has still been and is a friend of Ukraine, even if it was not perceived in the Ukrainian press. In addition to weapons, Hungary provides Ukraine with any other support, including humanitarian aid, hosting Ukrainian refugees, or political support for the country (voting for EU funds, decisions to start membership, or sanctions against Russia).
Since then, the negotiations have continued, so to speak, in the background, and this year's meeting between Péter Szijjártó and Dmytro Kuleba clearly influenced the direction of the agreements. In my opinion, the positive trend will continue – this is also evident from the fact that in recent months harsh bilateral statements characteristic of the past have disappeared from the public space.
However, the real breakthrough will be the meeting between Viktor Orbán and Volodymyr Zelensky, which is being organized. However, this is unlikely to happen before the elections to the European Parliament."
The Prime Minister of Hungary met with Donald Trump in the United States. The main topic of their conversation was the war in Ukraine. Viktor Orbán said that if Trump had remained president, the war would not have started, but if he returned this fall, he would be able to stop it quickly. Viktor Orbán's own statements also cause considerable resonance in Ukraine. What do you think about this and about Hungarian-American relations if Donald Trump manages to take revenge? How can his return affect Viktor Orbán's role in Europe and the war in Ukraine as a whole?
"Donald Trump's return would certainly be a positive step in terms of defending Hungary's interests and improving Hungarian-American relations. The Hungarian government has openly supported the Republican candidate, which will definitely reciprocate if Trump is elected. Among other things, we can expect the abolition of those measures that have a negative impact on Hungarians (e.g. double taxation avoidance measures) and the establishment of business and strategic partnerships.
However, I do not expect drastic changes from the Republican leadership regarding Ukraine and Russia. The U.S. national interest is the same for Democrats and Republicans alike: containing Russia and preserving the international status quo. It is vital for the United States' role as a global hegemon to avoid setting a precedent: when a country achieves its goals through military force, and neither Washington nor its allies can do anything about it. Such a precedent would have a very negative impact on American foreign policy in the case of China, India, Iran, Brazil, or other states that claim a prominent international role. The U.S. must now demonstrate that the United States is stronger than ever, and that an attack on U.S. allies will counter the attacker — whether it's Russia in Ukraine or potentially China in Taiwan. Because of all this, the means may change, but the ultimate goal is not, even under Donald Trump."
Summer elections to the EU are approaching, as well as municipal elections in Hungary. How do you see the chances of the ruling parties and the opposition in these competitions? The difference between the parties may decrease, what are the trends in this regard? Does it matter in these elections how the parties in Hungary treat Ukraine, the war, the situation around the Transcarpathian Hungarian minority?
"I don't want to make predictions, that's not my style. But it is obvious that the topic of Ukraine will continue to dominate the elections for several reasons. First of all, Ukraine is close to us, we border each other. Security challenges, war, and the arrival of refugees are absolutely felt on this side of the border.
Another reason is the situation of the Transcarpathian Hungarians, for which Hungary is responsible, which is an integral part of Hungarian foreign policy and is even included in the Hungarian constitution. And that won't change in the coming months either. There is no reason to assume that otherwise Ukrainian government or other European countries would not want peace, they just have a different idea of the path to it."
Hungary is now quite isolated in the EU, can this situation change after the summer elections to the European Parliament? Hungary's position on assessing the war in Ukraine contrasts sharply with the mainstream in Brussels. But this has been the case before during the migration crisis and, judging by the current developments, are the fears of the Hungarian side justified? Can this happen again in connection with the war in Ukraine?
"There is no doubt that as the war continues, there will be some fatigue among European societies, and Ukrainian problems will fade into the background.
Hungary's position will not become mainstream, it is expected that the strategic goal of suppressing Russia and supporting Ukraine will continue to dominate. At the same time, Budapest's message of an immediate end to the war will no longer be part of marginality or some kind of deviation, but will increasingly be a position represented by several European powers, part of the discourse that European decision-makers must reckon with.
But in the next period, much will depend on the course of the war."
Hungary's economy relies heavily on the automotive industry and, more recently, on Chinese investment in batteries. How do you assess this trend from the point of view of economic policy? Can Hungary be involved in the reconstruction processes in Ukraine?
"I think the government was good at recognizing and exploiting the most important economic trends. Car production is clearly considered the driving force of Europe, and it was quite a logical step to attract European, primarily German, automakers to Hungary. The combination of skilled domestic labour with Europe's most innovative industrial technology and the consolidation of car manufacturers over the years has meant undeniable economic results. All of this has attracted a variety of other sectors and services related to automobile manufacturing to Hungary.
As the trend in car production has clearly shifted towards electric vehicles, the Hungarian government realized this process in time and quickly, and in recent years, they have begun to prepare and reorganize domestic infrastructure. Several international companies involved in electromobility and battery manufacturing have settled or are settling in the country. The government competed, for example, in the fight for the European Tesla plant, and we were one of the first to provide a training ground for ourselves – opportunities for driving cars in the southwestern part of Hungary.
We have done our best to prepare for international economic trends. The long-term goal is to have the necessary tools for a possible transformation of the car production operating here and thus preserve European car production in Hungary.
Hungary has strong know-how in the fields of energy, engineering, agriculture, construction and logistics, and all these sectors have been exported in recent years to partners in Eastern Europe, Central and East Asia, through domestic companies. If the war ends, the reconstruction of Ukraine will be an extraordinary opportunity for Hungarian companies with all this knowledge. Therefore, the normalization of bilateral relations between Hungary and Ukraine is also important from the point of view of Hungary's national interests, which I hope can take place this year."
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